For investors and traders trying to game out where the US economy, the stock market or interest rates are headed in the second half of 2025, good luck. There’s simply too much uncertainty to be sure of anything right now.

The bottom line: despite a lot of worries about volatility, SPX has been trading between about 5,950 and 6,050 since early June. Realized volatility, as measured by the 20-day historical volatility of SPX (HV20),