A southward shift in Erin’s track has led to an increase in risk for the northern Caribbean Islands, though a direct hit in the United States is unlikely.

The National Hurricane Center's prediction cone shows a westward trajectory, but doesn't paint a clear picture whether or not it's likely to impact the east coast of the United States. Spaghetti models, which represent a collection of predicted paths generated by multiple computer models, paint a more definitive picture as of Wednesday morning.

Tropical storm Erin is forecast to become the first major Atlantic hurricane of the year, and it could bring dangerous weather to the East. Here’s what to know. The first Atlantic hurricane of the year could be upon us.